Financial markets analysis prices and volatility

Find weekly our studies and decryptions on the evolution of prices and volatility of bond markets, foreign exchange and equity indices.

Update : 04/26/2021 - 01:40 am GMT
Summary of the week ahead

We should see :

NOTE : As we announced, this week there is no weekly note or update of this page. The other sections (Rates, currencies, indices and systems) are updated normally.

decoUS 10 year government at 1.564

US 10 year government

Buyer PressureSeller Pressure

fundamental trend : Technical recovery

The buying pressure and the predominant selling pressure slow their speeds of progression.

For this week, the 10 year US should evolve within a range of 1.536 / 1.668 with an axis at 1.578

Resistances 1.567 1.578 1.587 1.597 1.610 1.629 1.639 1.651 1.668 1.689 1.700
Supports 1.561 1.553 1.543 1.536 1.528 1.519 1.506 1.492 1.480 1.475 1.458
AB Points 0.850 1.110 1.220 1.320 1.460 1.580 1.660 1.770 1.820
Volatility HV * 21 D. 252 D. LTV
Average range * Day 0.054 Weekly 0.129
Max. weekly range * 1.435 1.693

* Anticipated

DASHBOARD
T-Bill 3M Pressure AB Points -0.030 0.000 0.010 0.022 0.030 0.042 0.056 0.070 0.120
Spread 10Y/3M Pressure FRA-OIS $ Pressure
US bond market

decoGerman 10 year government at -0.256

German 10 year government

Buyer PressureSeller Pressure

fundamental trend : Technical recovery

The predominant buying pressure decreases by accelerating its speed, the selling pressure decreases at a reduced speed.

For this week, the 10 year German should continue to evolve in a range -0.340 / -0.214 by pointing down the range.

Resistances -0.245 -0.234 -0.214 -0.203 -0.178 -0.169 -0.160 -0.145 -0.131
Supports -0.256 -0.261 -0.268 -0.277 -0.290 -0.303 -0.316 -0.328 -0.340
AB Points -0.480 -0.418 -0.380 -0.355 -0.280 -0.180 -0.080 0.120
Volatility HV * 21 D. 252 D. LTV
Average range * Day 0.039 Weekly 0.081
Max. weekly range * -0.337 -0.175

* Anticipated

decoFrench 10 year government at - 0.005

French 10 year government

Buyer PressureSeller Pressure

fundamental trend : Technical recovery

The predominant buying pressure and selling pressure decline at a steady speed.

For this week, like the German yields the French should continue to evolve in a range -0.090 / 0.066 with an axis to -0.013

Resistances -0.001 0.007 0.033 0.046 0.056 0.066 0.084 0.094 0.102
Supports -0.013 -0.026 -0.037 -0.044 -0.052 -0.068 -0.090 -0.134 -0.149
AB Points -0.180 -0.138 -0.100 -0.080 -0.026 0.020 0.120 0.270
Volatility HV * 21 D. 252 D. LTV
Average range * Day 0.040 Weekly 0.089
Max. weekly range * -0.094 0.084

* Anticipated

decoEURUSD at 1.2094

Euro vs Dollar

Buyer PressureSeller Pressure

fundamental trend : Consolidation

The predominant buying pressure declines by accelerating its speed, the selling pressure stagnates.

For this week, the single currency should continue its upward movement to test its resistance level 1.2165 / 1.2173. Its downward movements should be limited to its support 1.1981.

Resistances 1.2097 1.2109 1.2124 1.2131 1.2150 1.2157 1.2165 1.2173 1.2187 1.2195
Supports 1.2091 1.2081 1.2070 1.2057 1.2040 1.2026 1.2022 1.2012 1.2001 1.1981
Volatility HV * 21 D. 252 D. LTV
Average range * Day 0.0069 Weekly 0.0165
Max. weekly range * 1.1929 1.2259
EURUSD details

* Anticipated

decoSP500 at 4180

SP500 Index

Buyer PressureSeller Pressure

fundamental trend : Bullish

The predominant buying pressure decreases by increasing its speed, the selling pressure decreases at a regular speed.

For this week, the index is expected to set a new record in a more volatile market. Its bearish movements should be limited to its support of 4098.

Resistances 4191 4194 4203 * 4240 * 4275 * 4351 *
Supports 4176 4158 4135 4129 4111 4102 4098 4086 4076 4016
Volatility HV * 21 D. 252 D. LTV
Average range * Day 51 Pts Weekly 106 Pts
Max. weekly range * 4074 4286
SP500 details

* Anticipated

IMPLIED VOLATILITY SPX OPTIONS

As every week, the operations related to the weekend Theta are expected to exert bullish pressure on Monday and bearish pressure on Friday on the implied volatility.

This week, volatility increased (SPX, SPY) over 30 and 90 days.
Parity put/call spreads remained stable (SPY) over 30 and 90 days. They increased due to a higher increase in puts (SPX) over 30 days and more moderately over 90 days.

Anticipating a continuation of implied volatility and a rise in the index accompanied by a potential air hole, we will remain over 90 days calls with delta hedge.

VIX INDEX at 17.33
Pressure
VIX HV
Rates option

UST Short

VIX

HV SP500 / HV UST - Weekly

VIX

HV SP500 / HV UST - Daily