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Update : 02/21/2021 - 9:45 pm GMT
Summary of the week ahead
We should see : (without new information about the pandemic)
A more volatile U.S. bond market that continues to push up the long part of its yield curve. A short part pushed down with the help of Libor $ but which does not fall ... for the moment. Is this the TGA effect ?
A slightly more volatile European bond market that starts to increase its curves by the long parties, recovery of a minimal magnitude compared to the US market. A short part that remains flat and uniform for many European countries.
Overall, bond markets are expected to have greater volatility. To date, volatility is expected to remain of limited magnitude.
A EURUSD parity in the consolidation phase that evolves in the range.
Stock indexes with fairly quiet volatility except in Asia, that remain in the bullish long-term trend.
US 10 year government at 1.340
Buyer PressureSeller Pressure
fundamental trend : Technical recovery
Buyer's pressure drops at a moderate rate, seller's pressure drops at a steady rate.
For this week, before continuing its upward movement towards its resistance zone 1.578 / 1.628, the 10 year US is expected to stall temporarily below its resistance zone 1.375 / 1.399. Its bearish movements should be limited to its support zone 1.172 / 1.110.
* Anticipated
| Dashboard | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T-Bill 3M | Pressure | AB Points | 0.017 | 0.021 | 0.030 | 0.046 | 0.062 | 0.070 | 0.119 | |
| Spread 10Y/3M | Pressure | FRA-OIS $ | Pressure | |||||||
| US bond market | ||||||||||
German 10 year government at -0.307
Buyer PressureSeller Pressure
fundamental trend : Technical recovery
The predominant buying pressure and the selling pressure are declining at a steady rate.
For this week, the German 10 year should temporarily stop its upward movement below its resistance zone -0.264 / -0.256 or even -0.203. Its bearish movements should be limited to its support -0.371.
* Anticipated
| Dashboard | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread US vs GER | Pressure | Spread ITA vs GER | Pressure | ||||||||
| German bond market | |||||||||||
French 10 year government at -0.058
Buyer PressureSeller Pressure
fundamental trend : Technical recovery
The predominant buying pressure decreases as it accelerates its speed , the selling pressure declines at a steady rate.
For this week, the French 10 year is expected to continue its upward movement to its resistance zone 0.053 / 0.066 or even 0.084. Its bearish movements should be limited to its support zone -0.136 / -0.144.
* Anticipated
| Dashboard | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread FR vs GER | Pressure | |||||||||
| French bond market | ||||||||||
EURUSD at 1.2116
Buyer PressureSeller Pressure
fundamental trend : Consolidation
The buying pressure evolves into a yo-yo, the predominant selling pressure increases in jerks.
For this week, the single currency which evolves in range should break its resistance of 1.2151 to pass in the range 1.2138 / 1.2250.
| Resistances | 1.2138 | 1.2151 | 1.2163 | 1.2183 | 1.2219 | 1.2250 | 1.2273 | 1.2289 | 1.2311 | 1.2350 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supports | 1.2085 | 1.2051 | 1.2011 | 1.2001 | 1.1976 | 1.1957 | 1.1917 | 1.1890 | 1.1875 | 1.1853 | |
| Volatility HV * | 21 D. | 252 D. | LTV | ||||||||
| Average range * | Day | 0.0067 | Weekly | 0.0149 | |||||||
| Max. weekly range * | 1.1967 | 1.2265 | |||||||||
| EURUSD details | |||||||||||
* Anticipated
SP500 at 3906
Buyer PressureSeller Pressure
fundamental trend : Bullish
The predominant buying pressure and the selling pressure are stagnating.
For this week, the index should test its support zone 3878 / 3870 to come to that of 3811 / 3806. Its bullish movements should be limited to its resistance of 3932.
| Resistances | 3932 | 3950 | 3979 * | 4016 * | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supports | 3896 | 3877 | 3870 | 3861 | 3826 | 3811 | 3806 | 3777 | |
| Volatility HV * | 21 D. | 252 D. | LTV | ||||||
| Average range * | Day | 41 Pts | Weekly | 92 Pts | |||||
| Max. weekly range * | 3814 | 3998 | |||||||
| SP500 details | |||||||||
* Anticipated
IMPLIED VOLATILITY SPX OPTIONS
As every week, the operations related to the weekend Theta are expected to exert bullish pressure on Monday and bearish pressure on Friday on the implied volatility.
Resumes next week.
VIX INDEX at 22.05
| Pressure | |
|---|---|
| VIX HV |
