Financial markets analysis prices and volatility

Find weekly our studies and decryptions on the evolution of prices and volatility of bond markets, foreign exchange and equity indices.

EDITO :
As you can see, we have made some changes to the design and created some new sections.
Concerning financial products, you will find a specific section for interest rates, currencies and equity indices. To help you understand our indicators, a simplified FAQ is available in the markets menu. New links have been added to the "Press" section to give a better view of the immediate concerns of the inhabitants of a country.
The "Open data", "Historical" and "Real time" sections have also been enchanced with additional links.
We hope you like this new version and above all that it will be useful to you.

Update : 02/21/2021 - 9:45 pm GMT
Summary of the week ahead

We should see : (without new information about the pandemic)

A more volatile U.S. bond market that continues to push up the long part of its yield curve. A short part pushed down with the help of Libor $ but which does not fall ... for the moment. Is this the TGA effect ?

A slightly more volatile European bond market that starts to increase its curves by the long parties, recovery of a minimal magnitude compared to the US market. A short part that remains flat and uniform for many European countries.

Overall, bond markets are expected to have greater volatility. To date, volatility is expected to remain of limited magnitude.

A EURUSD parity in the consolidation phase that evolves in the range.

Stock indexes with fairly quiet volatility except in Asia, that remain in the bullish long-term trend.

decoUS 10 year government at 1.340

US 10 year government

Buyer PressureSeller Pressure

fundamental trend : Technical recovery

Buyer's pressure drops at a moderate rate, seller's pressure drops at a steady rate.

For this week, before continuing its upward movement towards its resistance zone 1.578 / 1.628, the 10 year US is expected to stall temporarily below its resistance zone 1.375 / 1.399. Its bearish movements should be limited to its support zone 1.172 / 1.110.

Resistances 1.375 1.399 1.429 1.578 1.628 1.749 1.762 1.823 1.972 2.040
Supports 1.336 1.266 1.218 1.184 1.172 1.110 1.075 1.002 0.917
AB Points 1.070 1.170 1.270 1.320 1.370 1.470 1.570 1.820
Volatility HV * 21 D. 252 D. LTV
Average range * Day 0.082 Weekly 0.182
Max. weekly range * 1.158 1.522

* Anticipated

Dashboard
T-Bill 3M Pressure AB Points 0.017 0.021 0.030 0.046 0.062 0.070 0.119
Spread 10Y/3M Pressure FRA-OIS $ Pressure
US bond market

decoGerman 10 year government at -0.307

German 10 year government

Buyer PressureSeller Pressure

fundamental trend : Technical recovery

The predominant buying pressure and the selling pressure are declining at a steady rate.

For this week, the German 10 year should temporarily stop its upward movement below its resistance zone -0.264 / -0.256 or even -0.203. Its bearish movements should be limited to its support -0.371.

Resistances -0.288 -0.264 -0.256 -0.203 -0.163 -0.145 -0.131 -0.080
Supports -0.308 -0.328 -0.371 -0.402 -0.413 -0.462 -0.479 -0.510
AB Points -0.067 -0.167 -0.237 -0.267 -0.279 -0.327 -0.377 -0.477
Volatility HV * 21 D. 252 D. LTV
Average range * Day 0.047 Weekly 0.112
Max. weekly range * -0.419 -0.195

* Anticipated

decoFrench 10 year government at -0.058

French 10 year government

Buyer PressureSeller Pressure

fundamental trend : Technical recovery

The predominant buying pressure decreases as it accelerates its speed , the selling pressure declines at a steady rate.

For this week, the French 10 year is expected to continue its upward movement to its resistance zone 0.053 / 0.066 or even 0.084. Its bearish movements should be limited to its support zone -0.136 / -0.144.

Resistances -0.051 -0.046 -0.001 0.016 0.053 0.066 0.084 0.153 0.203
Supports -0.074 -0.126 -0.136 -0.144 -0.178 -0.216 -0.246 -0.276 -0.344
AB Points -0.227 -0.077 -0.057 -0.037 0.003 0.023 0.123
Volatility HV * 21 D. 252 D. LTV
Average range * Day 0.045 Weekly 0.119
Max. weekly range * -0.177 0.061

* Anticipated

decoEURUSD at 1.2116

Euro vs Dollar

Buyer PressureSeller Pressure

fundamental trend : Consolidation

The buying pressure evolves into a yo-yo, the predominant selling pressure increases in jerks.

For this week, the single currency which evolves in range should break its resistance of 1.2151 to pass in the range 1.2138 / 1.2250.

Resistances 1.2138 1.2151 1.2163 1.2183 1.2219 1.2250 1.2273 1.2289 1.2311 1.2350
Supports 1.2085 1.2051 1.2011 1.2001 1.1976 1.1957 1.1917 1.1890 1.1875 1.1853
Volatility HV * 21 D. 252 D. LTV
Average range * Day 0.0067 Weekly 0.0149
Max. weekly range * 1.1967 1.2265
EURUSD details

* Anticipated

decoSP500 at 3906

SP500 Index

Buyer PressureSeller Pressure

fundamental trend : Bullish

The predominant buying pressure and the selling pressure are stagnating.

For this week, the index should test its support zone 3878 / 3870 to come to that of 3811 / 3806. Its bullish movements should be limited to its resistance of 3932.

Resistances 3932 3950 3979 * 4016 *
Supports 3896 3877 3870 3861 3826 3811 3806 3777
Volatility HV * 21 D. 252 D. LTV
Average range * Day 41 Pts Weekly 92 Pts
Max. weekly range * 3814 3998
SP500 details

* Anticipated

IMPLIED VOLATILITY SPX OPTIONS

As every week, the operations related to the weekend Theta are expected to exert bullish pressure on Monday and bearish pressure on Friday on the implied volatility.

Resumes next week.

VIX INDEX at 22.05
Pressure
VIX HV
Rates option

UST Short

VIX

HV SP500 / HV UST - Weekly

VIX

HV SP500 / HV UST - Daily