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Analysis

Update : 12/07/2019 - 6:05 pm GMT

Summary of the week ahead

We should see the main bond markets bearish, a EURUSD again in yo-yo and stock markets returning to their footsteps.

NOTE : Hello, the 12/15/19 will be the last weekly letter of the year 2019. The heading systems will be updated normally until 12/19/19. For the French version, the PEA portfolio heading will continue to be monitored and updated. We will make our return on 01/05/2020.

US 10 years government at 1.842

Bond 10 years USA

Buyer Pressure Seller Pressure

Basic trend : Technical recovery.

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The buying pressure increases at a constant speed, the dominant selling pressure starts a downward turn.

In the short term, before coming to test its resistance of 1.978 the 10 years should temporarily ceiling under its resistance zone 1.936 / 1.943. Its downward movements should be limited to its support zone of 1.771 / 1.762.

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Resistances 1.856 1.883 1.898 1.912 1.936 1.946 1.978
Supports 1.837 1.813 1.797 1.771 1.762 1.737 1.724
Volatility HV * D. 21 D. 252
Ave. Range * Daily 0.065 Weekly 0.165
Max. Weekly Range * 1.677 2.007

* Anticipated


German 10 years government at - 0.286

Bond 10 years Germany

Buyer Pressure Seller Pressure

Basic trend : Technical recovery.

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The predominant buying pressure has halted its progression, the sales pressure declines at a constant speed.

In the short term, the German 10 years should move towards its resistance level -0.239 / -0.234 or even -0.218. Level below which it should temporarily cap. Downward movements should be limited to its support of -0.350.

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Resistances - 0.270 - 0.261 - 0.246 - 0.234 - 0.227 - 0.218 - 0.203
Supports - 0.305 - 0.311 - 0.328 - 0.350 - 0.362 - 0.408 - 0.421
Volatility HV * D. 21 D. 252
Ave. Range * Daily 0.049 Weekly 0.113
Max. Weekly Range * - 0.399 - 0.173

* Anticipated


French 10 years government at 0.034

Bond 10 years French

Buyer Pressure Seller Pressure

Basic trend : Technical recovery.

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The predominant buying pressure progresses at a reduced speed, the selling pressure slowly resumes its decline.

In the short term, before coming to pick up the resistance zone 0.102 / 0.112, the French 10 years should temporarily cap under its resistance of 0.084. Drop movements should be limited to its support -0.046.

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Resistances 0.039 0.053 0.065 0.084 0.102 0.112 0.123
Supports 0.016 - 0.001 - 0.009 - 0.037 - 0.046 - 0.075 - 0.096
Volatility HV * D. 21 D. 252
Ave. Range * Daily 0.047 Weekly 0.133
Max. Weekly Range * - 0.099 0.167

* Anticipated


European Bond 10 years government

U.E Bond 10 years Spreads

U.E Bond 10 years Spreads

Bond Italy 10 years

Buyer Pres. Seller Pres.

Italy 10 years government

Bond Spain 10 years

Buyer Pres. Seller Pres.

Spain 10 years government

Bond UK 10 years

Buyer Pres.Seller Pres.

U.K 10 years government

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EURUSD at 1.1059

EURUSD

Buyer Pressure Seller Pressure

Basic trend : Bearish.

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NOTE : Any missile colliding with a refinery where a tanker and skid in Syria, would restore the dollar's safe haven status by propelling the Euro to 1.0894.

The buying pressure slows its speed of increase, the predominant selling pressure resumes its rise.

In the short term, the single currency should end its downward movement on its support zone 1.1012 / 1.1009. This level should serve as a floor to bounce back to its resistance zone 1.1088 / 1.1095.

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Start of the week, high probability of a sudden movement. Maximum daily variation: 0.082 Pts
Resistances 1.1066 1.1070 1.1088 1.1095 1.1106 1.1113 1.1133
Supports 1.1055 1.1041 1.1035 1.1028 1.1012 1.1009 1.0995
Volatility HV * D. 21 D. 252
Ave. Range * Daily 0.0051 Weekly 0.0132
Max. Weekly Range * 1.0927 1.1191

* Anticipated


U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) at 97.68

U.S. Dollar Index

Buyer Pressure Seller Pressure

Basic trend : Bullish.

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The buying pressure recovers at a constant speed, the predominant selling pressure slows its progression.

In the short term, the Dollar Index should be able to pass its resistance zone 98.02 / 98.16 to cap under its resistance of 98.37 and return to the levels of 98.02/ 97.87.

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Resistances 97.71 97.87 98.02 98.16 98.37 98.51 98.72
Supports 97.59 97.35 97.20 97.05 96.94 96.51 96.21
Volatility HV * D. 21 D. 252
Ave. Range * Daily 0.41 Weekly 1.22
Max. Weekly Range * 96.46 98.90

* Anticipated


Currencies World

Euro

EUR

Dollar

USD

Yuan

CNY

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SP500 Index at 3145

Indice SP500

Buyer Pressure Seller Pressure

Basic trend : Bullish.

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The predominant buying pressure continues its rise has a sustained speed, the selling pressure progresses by decreasing its speed.

In the short term, the index should set a new record around of 3162 to return to its support of 3112.

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Resistances 3154 3162 * 3174 * 3178 *
Supports 3142 3128 3112 3102 3096 3087 3077
Volatility HV * D. 21 D. 252
Ave. Range * Daily 31 Pts Weekly 73 Pts
Max. Weekly Range * 3072 3218

* Anticipated

sp500 - Implied volatility

As every week, the operations related to the weekend Theta are expected to exert bullish pressure on Monday and bearish pressure on Friday on implied volatility.

At this beginning of the week, the call/put volatility spread having increased on the SPY 30 days maturity, we will follow on the SPX the put 3140 at maturity 17/01. An increase in the equity index could make another exercise price more attractive.

Indice VIX at 13.62
Trend * Target 14/15
Resistances 15.20 16.04 17.15 18.02 21.46 23.46 24.59
Supports 13.20 12.01 10.85 9.14

* Anticipated


CAC40 Index at 5871

CAC40

Buyer Pressure Seller Pressure

Basic trend : Bullish.

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The predominant buying pressure has resumed its progression, the selling pressure is increasing at a constant rate.

In the short term, the index should cap under its resistance of 5894 to return towards its support at 5747.

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This week, high probability of a sudden movement. Maximum daily variation : 138 Pts
Resistances 5874 5882 5894 5922 5931 5943 5958
Supports 5856 5827 5808 5794 5778 5747 5737
Volatility HV * D. 21 D. 252
Ave. Range * Daily 74 Pts Weekly 186 Pts
Max. Weekly Range * 5685 6057

* Anticipated

CAC40 - Implied volatility

As every week, the operations related to the weekend Theta are expected to exert bullish pressure on Monday and bearish pressure on Friday on implied volatility.

VOLA IDX index at 14.06
Trend * Target 14.8/15.8
Resistances 14.80 15.79 16.60 18.17 21.94 24.31 25.46
Supports 13.96 12.50 11.32 9.43

* Anticipated


Equity indices World

America Indices

Dow Jones / Nasdaq / TSX

EU Indices

CAC250 / Footsie / Dax

Asia Indices

Hang Seng / Nikkei

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